Complex Disasters

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What is normalcy bias? We all suffer from it. It’s part of human nature. Normalcy bias is a psychological state in which we think things will continue to be the way they have always have. They’ll stay normal. And it’s what makes seeing the impending complex disaster so difficult.

What Exactly IS a Complex Disaster?

A complex disaster is a group of small, serious events that, when compounded together, turn into one giant, complex disaster. We may not notice all the small events because we’re so focused on the big event.

An example of this is gas prices. Alone, they aren’t great. But we can deal with it. But when you add in food prices, inflation, shortages, and everything else, it becomes a complex disaster. It’s a domino effect.

Our mindset should be to become aware of these smaller events that may be leading to the big event. If we don’t notice them, we won’t realize the big one is coming, and we won’t be as prepared as we could be.

Looking back over history, we can see what’s happened. We should learn from our past. Look at the American Revolution and the French Revolution. What was the catalyst? The people of the world were not happy with their government.

The Consumer Price Index Game

Today, the rate of inflation is 8.3%. The Consumer Price Index, which is used to determine inflation, uses substitutions. For example, if milk prices become too expensive and raise inflation too high, they remove it from their comparisons and use something cheaper and more stable, like Kool-Aid.

The Consumer Price Index is a minimized version of what is actually happening. Gas prices have gone up 100-200%. How does that lead to 8.3% inflation? Home prices have gone up 17.4-29%, depending on location. This doesn’t add up to 8.3%, either.

Consider the food shortages. Biden announced in March of 2022 that we should expect food shortages by the end of the summer. He wasn’t lying. It’s already happening.

And it’s going to get worse. The cost of fertilizer has increased astronomically. As a result, our food prices will continue to rise. The truck drivers that deliver that food to the stores have to pay more in gas, so the price to deliver the food goes up. Again, it’s a domino effect.

This May Be the Tip of the Iceberg

How bad does it have to get before it impacts you and your family? Will it take standing in line for food? Will it take $10 per gallon gas prices? India has already stopped all shipments of wheat out of their country.

If the potential of our country going into another Depression doesn’t faze you then you’re not paying attention. It should scare you. 

What does all this mean? It means we need to be prepared. If you’re not, you need to start right now. If you think you are already prepared, you need to go through your inventory and fill in your preps. Set yourself up to rise above the situation.

It Comes Down to Survival, Safety, and Self

• Survival

  • Your food pantry should be 100% stocked and bulging at the seams.
  • Pay attention to the way you’re eating. Start preparing your body for rationing food. Intermittent fasting is a great way to accomplish this.
  • Make sure you have a solid water source.

• Safety

  • Secure your home. Make sure no one can get in and take your supplies.

• Self

  • Be the best you that you can be.
  • Know your values.
  • Be someone with solid advice. Try sharing the 20/20/20 rule. (20 cans of meat, 20 cans of vegetables, 20 cans of fruit.)

Be Deliberate About How You Prepare

• For example, what’s in your vehicle door that you immediately use? A flashlight, bear spray, a reflective vest, and bug spray to put on before exiting your vehicle.
• What’s in your passenger’s door? Do they need the same things? If you travel with a dog, you should have a dog door on the passenger side so they don’t exit the vehicle into the traffic.
• Put a crate in your vehicle with items in it to fix things.

Preparing for Complex Disasters

If you don’t have a plan, you need to make one. If you have a plan, you need to review it and make sure you’re ready. 

You have time right now to get into your preps and make sure you’re squared away. There are a lot of people around the world that are upset. Add all of these small events together, and you’re looking at a huge blow-up. Make sure you’re ready when it happens.

Additional Resources:

• Lessons From the Great Depression We Can Use Right Now
• 7 Best Tips on How to Prepare for Hyperinflation
• Disaster Situations Aren’t Always Isolated Events
• Top 7 Tips for Disaster Preparedness